On February 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a large-scale military campaign aimed at compromising Iran’s command structure, air defenses, missile sites, and nuclear development facilities. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening barrage of strikes on Tehran’s government complexes. Iran retaliated immediately, launching missiles and drones at U.S. bases across the Gulf region, as well as numerous strikes inside Israel. Now, nearly three weeks later, the conflict has widened across the region, with no ceasefire in sight.

Friday, April 17th

Day 47:

As the conflict in the Middle East enters its sixth week, fighting has continued across multiple fronts, even as a fragile, temporary ceasefire and renewed diplomatic efforts have attempted to contain further escalation.

According to Reuters, the death toll across the Middle East has surpassed 5,000 as of April 10. More than 3,000 people have been killed in Iran, and 2,100 people have been killed in Lebanon amid Israel’s ongoing campaign against Hezbollah. 23 people have died inside Israel from Iranian air strikes, and 32 more have been killed across the other Gulf states. 13 U.S. service members have been killed at bases across the region, and over 300 additional U.S. personnel have been wounded. 

On April 3, U.S. special forces carried out a large-scale rescue operation inside Iran to recover a downed airman following the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle two days earlier. The operation involved more than 150 aircraft, including fighters, bombers, and rescue units, and included airstrikes intended to deter approaching Iranian forces. 

Of the two crew members who ejected, one was quickly recovered, while the other remained stranded in a remote mountainous region in southwestern Iran. U.S. officials acknowledged that some aircraft used in the mission were destroyed on the ground to prevent capture, while Iranian authorities claimed additional losses and described the operation as unsuccessful.

On April 8, the United States and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire following more than a month of conflict. The agreement came hours after President Donald Trump warned on TruthSocial that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Under the arrangement, both sides suspended strikes and the Strait of Hormuz was opened to commercial shipping, with transit coordinated by Iranian forces. According to PBS, both sides have outlined broader proposals, with U.S. officials emphasizing an eradication of Iran’s nuclear program, and Iran calling for sanctions relief, compensation, and a wider regional ceasefire. 

Efforts to reach a broader peace agreement have so far been unsuccessful. April 11-12 negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, failed to produce a deal, with key disagreements remaining over a myriad of terms and conditions. U.S. officials have continued to push for limits on Uranium enrichment, while Iran has rejected several proposals and accused Washington of shifting demands. Officials from both sides are now considering a second round of talks, though no date has been set and major points remain unresolved.

Israel has continued its military campaign in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. On Tuesday, the United States hosted the first direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials in decades, though the sides entered with conflicting positions. Lebanon called for a ceasefire, while Israel has ruled one out and continues to pursue Hezbollah’s disarmament. Hezbollah was not part of the talks and has been opposed to taking part in such discussions with Israel.

On Thursday, however, a U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect, with Israel agreeing to halt strikes while maintaining forces in parts of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah did not negotiate the agreement, and its compliance remains unclear.

Friday, March 27th

Day 28:

On Friday, Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia Island, a joint U.K.-U.S. base in the Indian Ocean more than 2,000 miles from Tehran. However, neither struck the base, per CNN. The attempted strike was deeply alarming nonetheless, as missiles of that range would put Central Europe within reach of Iran’s arsenal. 

On Saturday night, Iranian ballistic missiles struck the southern Israeli towns of Arad and Dimona, injuring more than 200 people. According to Politico, it was the first time Iranian missiles had penetrated Israel’s air defense systems in the area surrounding its main nuclear research facility. 

On Monday, in a post to TruthSocial, President Donald Trump said that Washington has held “productive conversations” with Iran, after he postponed strikes on Iranian power plants and other energy infrastructure. According to Trump, these talks “will continue throughout the week.” 

Following Trump’s comments, Brent crude oil plunged, falling from $113 to a low of $96 per barrel amid reports of the potential to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 861 points, or 1.9%, signaling tentative optimism as investors welcomed the prospect of de-escalation in the Middle East.

However, according to Iranian authorities via state media, there was “no dialogue” between the two countries. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that Trump’s comment about ongoing talks was fake news to “manipulate the financial and oil markets.”

On Tuesday, the U.S. was said to have sent a 15-point peace plan to Iran via Pakistan, which has repeatedly asserted its willingness to be an intermediary between the two countries. According to the BBC, the plan offers sweeping sanctions relief in exchange for Iran’s surrendering its enriched uranium. It also mandates that Iran abandons its enrichment capabilities, limits its ballistic missile program, and cuts support to regional proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that negotiations were ongoing and that Iran “so badly” wanted to reach a deal. 

By Wednesday morning, however, Iran had formally rejected the proposal. According to AP News, Tehran’s counterproposal demanded a complete halt to aggression, war reparations, and formal recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that any talks had taken place, saying that “no negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has damaged or destroyed more than 140 Iranian Navy ships, accounting for roughly 92% of their naval capacity. Since the start of the war more than three weeks ago, over 9,000 targets have been struck. 

Saturday, March 21st

Day 22:

On Tuesday, an Israeli strike killed Ali Larijani, one of the top Iranian national security officials believed to be directing Iran’s war effort. Larijani was a prominent conservative hardliner within Iran’s theocracy, and was considered to be the de facto leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. 

Gholamreza Soleimani, Commander of the Basij forces, was also killed. As Iran’s most powerful internal security force, the Basij forces function as an extension of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), working to crush dissent inside Iran violently. Despite the death of Soleimani, the Basij forces’ command structure has withstood the impact of his loss, maintaining its operations in Iran, per Al Jazeera.

Also on Tuesday, Joe Kent, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center and a longtime Trump ally, resigned in protest against the U.S.’ involvement in the war, stating that Iran’s regime did not pose “an imminent threat” as the administration has claimed. In his resignation letter posted to X, Kent said he could not support “sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people.” The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has since opened a leak investigation into Kent, with NBC reporting that the probe began before his resignation was announced. 

On Wednesday, Iran confirmed the death of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, marking the third high-level official to be killed this week by Israeli strikes. Khatib had led Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence since 2021, overseeing the country’s domestic surveillance apparatus and its covert operations abroad. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the killing as a “cowardly assassination” that had plunged Iran into “deep mourning”. 

Later that same day, Israel struck South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas field, prompting Iran to retaliate with ballistic missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility. In a post to TruthSocial, Trump denied that the U.S. had prior knowledge of the strike, and warned the U.S. would “massively blow up the entirety” of the South Pars gas field if Iran continues targeting Qatar’s energy infrastructure.The financial cost of the war is mounting rapidly. According to analysis from NPR, the conflict cost an estimated $11.3 billion in its first six days alone. The Pentagon is now seeking a supplemental budget request of up to $200 billion from Congress to fund the ongoing war effort. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth confirmed the request at a Thursday press briefing, saying that “it takes money to kill bad guys.”

Tuesday, March 17th

Day 18:

The Strait of Hormuz, the vital passageway through which nearly 20% of global petroleum passes, remains shuttered. Daily oil exports from the Gulf region have dropped at least 60%, and oil prices are increasing rapidly: U.S. crude oil prices have now surpassed $100 per barrel. According to NPR, President Donald Trump is actively pressuring NATO allies and China to help reopen the Strait to tankers, but he has so far been met with little enthusiasm, as European countries seek to avoid direct involvement in the war. Trump is now publicly criticizing those allies for not doing more to help, stating that the U.S.-European alliances have a “very bad” future.

Israel has announced a “limited and targeted ground operation” against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, deploying ground troops near the northern Israeli border. Hezbollah, which is heavily supported by Iran, previously fired rockets into Israel. Israel has justified their military operation as an intervention and a hostile negotiating tactic, as the Lebanese government has been unable to successfully disarm Hezbollah. 

According to NBC, the death toll across the Middle East has surpassed 2,000. Roughly 1,200 people have been killed in Iran, and 850 people in Lebanon, due to intense Israeli-U.S. air strikes that have relentlessly bombarded both countries. 13 people have been killed inside Israel from Iranian air strikes. 13 U.S. service members have been killed at bases across the Gulf Region, and nearly 200 additional U.S. personnel have been wounded. 

An Amnesty International investigation has found the U.S. to be responsible for a strike on a girls’ primary school in Minab, Iran, that killed at least 170 people, mostly children. According to the investigation’s report, the U.S. “violated international humanitarian law by failing to take all feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm,” with Amnesty International urging accountability for the assault.

Per NBC, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reports more than 100 Iranian ships to be damaged or destroyed. During the past three weeks of Operation Epic Fury, over 6,500 combat flights have been flown, and more than 7,000 targets have been struck.